You see, yesterday I went to the Ames Straw Poll. It was my first time to go and I had a fun talking with people, meeting candidates and getting to be very "political". Therefore, I have a bunch of random thoughts concerning the poll that I shall now subject you to. [insert evil laugh]
1. I personally the whole thing is over done. As far as I know, George W. Bush is the only one to ever win the Straw Poll and the nomination. Why? Because the only people who come to it are generally conservative, evangelical diehards. So does it matter? Well, yes and no. No, in that it's not a good indicator of how one will do in the caucus or general election. Yes, because if a conservative candidate can't do well in the Straw Poll with his/her own base, there's no way they will do well in the general election. Case-in-point: Pawlenty dropped out after finishing third.
2. Speaking of which, I'm a bit disappointed to see Pawlenty drop out. While he didn't get my vote, I'd prefer him to a lot of the other guys.
3. I really don't get the buzz about Michele Bauchmann. Sorry.
4. I'm glad to see Rick Santorum do better than expected. While I rather doubt he'll win, I appreciate that he's keeping some important issues from being overlooked.
5. Ron Paul can only win fake polls.
6. Thaddeus McCotter got 35 votes. Can you say, 'epic fail'? Plus, he looks like a James Bond villain.
7. Rick Perry's well positioned. As a write-in, he still finished with a solid sixth. I think the nomination will come down to him and Romney.
8. Every time I get into one of my 'political moods' I have a tendency to become a bit pessimistic. Then I remember that I serve the President of presidents. "The king’s heart is a stream of water in the hand of the LORD; he turns it wherever he will." (Proverbs 21:1 ESV) Please join me in praying that our Sovereign would put a God-fearing man in the Oval Office. But more than that, that He might use this election to draw our nation back to Himself.
Hi Joshua, I won't try to twist your arm...much :) i'm curious, why do you think Ron Paul can't win?
ReplyDeleteFair question. I'm not saying he can't win necessarily. It just seems that historically he does well in straw polls but not so well when it actually counts. I expect him to do better than he did in 2008, but I have a hard time seeing him coming away with the nomination. :-)
ReplyDeleteThank you, Joshua, for one of the most sensible reports on the event I have read!
ReplyDeleteWell thank you!
ReplyDeleteThere is much to happen politically between now and those nice cold winter days of caucusing...Keep your eye on Perry at this point...many a man has won by being one of the last to throw his hat in the ring.
ReplyDeleteI have a couple of observations. One, if the Straw Poll is made up of predominately evangelical Christians, why did Romney win at the last caucus? Two, most of the Christians I have known over the years do not go to the Straw Poll and I am pretty sure the majority do not even vote in the caucuses. Most may vote in the general election but by that stage the good candidates are already gone. Quite frankly, it has been my experience that many if not most Christians have accepted that the world is just going to get worse no matter what and they aren't doing much of anything but waiting for Christ to come and rescue them.
ReplyDeleteMr. Garwick, my responce would be this: One, Romney had a lot of people duped last time around. I think conservatives are a lot more skeptical of him than they were in '08. Two, "evangelical" is pretty broad term. By it I meant a lot of people that are outside of our circles. Three, I agree with your opinion that Christians have become lazy and I think it's tragic.
ReplyDeleteQuite a bizarre paradox that Perry could leap to presumptive front-runner by avoiding the Iowa straw poll he knew he could not win, whereas Pawlenty, a no less credible candidate than Perry, and a far more credible candidate than Michelle Bachmann, felt compelled to drop out, though he did much better than arguable front-runner Romney. Again, why anyone ascribes importance to the results of such a stacked, heavily manipulated, and unscientific process is beyond me.( I say this as someone who has never found Pawlenty to be a likely candidate for anything more than Secretary of Commerce, but regards Michelle Bachmann as, at best, a candidate for her local School Board.)
ReplyDeleteI would add that virtually no one regards Ron Paul as a serious contender, yet he placed second, because, like Bachmann, he had more "boots on the ground". That tells us all we need to know about how meaningful the straw poll is/was.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you, Joshua, that it will be a very uphill battle for Congressman Paul, but I do think the political environment has changed significantly since 2008. Dr. Paul's non-interventionist and constitutional-libertarian views make a lot more sense to a lot more people now. Nice to see you getting involved in to process! Fight the good fight!
ReplyDeleteGreat Insight, Josh. You'd make a good conservative, knowledgeable news writer. Both your mom and Aunt Kara wrote in our church papers years ago. Keep up the family tradition. I agree with you except I'm a little more positive about Michele Bauchmann even though I feel the final will be Perry/Romney and I don't have a problem with Perry.
ReplyDeleteI know very little about Rick Perry. He was on Jan Mickleson's program today which I just downloaded and intend to listen to. I found some interesting videos about him on youtube. I would put a link to one of them on facebook but I need to do more checking to see how credible they are. If the ones I saw are accurate I doubt that any of you commenting here would be willing to vote for him. As for Ron Paul and his chances of getting the Republican nomination and then the Presidency, I would pay attention to a statement that I believe was made by Lennon that states, "It is not the ones that vote but the ones that count the votes that matters". For Ron Paul to have any chance, those that would like to vote for him should do it regardless of what chances the news media gives him, and somehow we need to make sure that all the votes at every stage of the process get counted accurately. I will reserve any more comments concerning Perry until I know more about him. As far as Romney goes, I will not vote for him. If he gets the nomination I will vote 3rd party as I did in the last election. I am tired of voting for the lesser of 2 evils.
ReplyDeleteYou are spot on with your entire commentary especially about the vote counting. I'm with you on 3rd Party as well and also went there in the last two elections.
ReplyDeleteNeither Perry nor Romney are (in my opinion) credible to be a good 'republican' candidate, and I don't think they'd be what we want in office. Although we all agree that Obama has to go.
ReplyDeleteAnd Josh, i would question WHY Paul does so well in the straw polls and not in the later stages. Some say that the straw poll is rigged, and i really cant argue one way or another on that. but if people think THAT is rigged, would it be so hard to believe that the later stages are rigged? It's not who votes, it's who counts them.
Anyway, I'm going to vote for who I think is the candidate with the best principles, not who the media says i should vote for. Political maneuvering is something i don't care for.
Josh, in referencing Perry I was not throwing my support his way as to me he is an unknown, I only wished to point out that by doing some political research I have found that sometimes it is the last man to join the party that get the nomination, giving a true example of "The last shall be first, and the first last", not that the last is any more qualified than the first, just that we as humans tire of the process and are prone to look over the fence for greener pastures. Keep up the good work!! It is great to read the commentaries of our future leaders!! Great reads Josh and Jesse!! As for why Paul does well, he is an idealist that fails to launch. He is great at locating issues that need to be addressed, but the implementation of the ideas is where we part ways.
ReplyDeleteIf that implies that Paul is a big talker but doesn't do much to fix things, I have to disagree. He has been quite active in not only trying to inform the general population about the flaws in this country, but to try and straighten them out.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Paul on some issues. I don't disagree with him on some others, while I shake my head in wonder at his views on some others. I suppose I could say the same about all of them. If there were any chance Paul could beat Obama, I would take him more seriously. There simply is not.
ReplyDeleteWow. Where should I start?
ReplyDeleteOn Perry: I need to do more research but thus far he looks less than perfect but preferable to Obama or Romney.
On Paul: Let me just say that I greatly respect Ron Paul. He's got guts and stands by his beliefs even when it's not popular. I like that. That said, I do disagree with him on a few issues and the idealology behind his policies makes me a bit uneasy.
As for why he wins straw polls but not actual elections, I think that it comes down to the fact that he seems to mostly attract two demographics: philosophers and conspiarcy theorists (I mean no disrespect to any Paul supports as all the Paul supports I'm friends with fit into the former category). Both groups are very passionate and will make it out to vote in every election (straw or real) but they're just aren't enough of them to sway a general election or even a primary.